DoomYoshi wrote:Dukasaur wrote:I don't think it was a lie. The plan has mutated from where it started, but I don't think that the changes are intentional. People have gradually changed their thinking over time.
Why do you not assume deception when it comes from government? They are masters of propaganda, double talk and spin. These are people who dedicate almost their entire life to being masters of dishonesty. When they make an about face without so much as an apology, it indicates that they were lying.
Actually, I DO assume deception when it comes from the government.
However, I do try to be discerning about what they're lying about and what they aren't. Occam's Razor is very useful here.
When the government announces a policy and their announced reasons make no sense whatsoever, the most straightforward assumption is that they are lying about their true reasons for that policy. What you are proposing is a far more convoluted plot. That governments, back in March when "flattening the curve" was the worldwide battle cry, already knew that once the curve was flattened, they would pivot to eradicating the disease entirely.
The first problem with your theory is that it depends on joint action by many governments. This poses the same problem as with every conspiracy: that it is impossible to get that many different people to stick to an agreed-upon plan for any length of time. We're talking about a vast multitude of entities here: not just national governments, but state, provincial, and regional governments, too. Hundreds of entities at the very least, more likely thousands. When a bunch of nations get together for dinner, it's hard enough to get them to agree whether they should sit at a round table or a square one. Asking them to agree on a sophisticated plot to manipulate public opinion for nearly a year is absolutely implausible.
The second problem is that you're assuming that anyone could have anticipated in March exactly how this would play out. You're giving them credit for incredible perception, which is contrary both to reason and to the record. The record shows governments that are as confused as anyone else, flailing about, trying one plan or another, always a move behind the virus. It just isn't plausible that this level of confusion was feigned. Nobody sets out to deliberately make himself look stupid. The only reasonable conclusion to make is that the confusion is genuine.
Are they lying? Of course they are, all the time. But the main thing they're lying about is that they know what to do. For the most part, they haven't got a clue. There are the exceptions, of course, a few countries like South Korea and Taiwan and New Zealand and now Iceland who defeated the virus fairly effectively. But those are the outliers. Most countries are just making it up as they go along. Trial-and-error. To me, there'd be no shame in saying, "we really don't know. We'll try a few things and see what works." But governments don't like to ever admit that they are wandering in the wilderness, so they lie constantly and pretend they have a road map.
So, yeah. I never assume the government is telling the truth. But they are lying to cover up their own lack of control, not lying to cover up some hypothetical long-range plan.
